Housing Needs Assessment template

Table of Contents

• Preface
• Funding Requirement
• Purpose
  1. Methodology
  2. Community Profile and Trends
  3. Household Profiles and Economic Characteristics
  4. Priority Groups
  5. Housing Profile
  6. Projected Housing Needs and Next Steps
  7. Use of Housing Needs Assessments in Long-Term Planning
• Annex A: Relevant Links for Developing Housing Needs Projections
• Annex B: Glossary

Preface

Canada's Housing Plan and Budget 2024 both signaled the Government of Canada's intent to use Housing Needs Assessments (HNAs) as a key tool in its evidence-based long-term approach to addressing housing needs across the country. This includes the renewal of the Canada Community-Building Fund and the previously announced permanent transit funding.

As the federal government strives to become a more informed investor, evidence-based tools that provide a clear assessment of local needs and gaps will be required to inform decision-making. HNAs will help all levels of government understand the local housing needs of communities – how they may relate to infrastructure priorities - by providing the data necessary to determine what kind of housing needs to be built and where. The intent is to promote systematic planning of infrastructure that takes into consideration current and future housing needs.

Funding Requirement

Under the Housing Accelerator Fund, the Government of Canada currently requires funding recipients to complete an HNA by year 3 of the program, if one has not already been completed within two years of the 2022 federal budget announcement (April 7, 2022).

Going forward, HNAs will be required for:

• Communities with a population of 30,000 and over receiving funding through the Canada Community-Building Fund;
• Communities with a population of 30,000 and over receiving funding through permanent transit funding; and,
• Future federal infrastructure funding applicants as required.

Once an HNA has been completed as a federal program requirement, a community will not be required to complete a new one for other Housing, Infrastructure and Communities Canada programs, other than to update it every five years.

Purpose

When done properly and regularly, an HNA will allow a community to answer fundamental questions such as:

• Where does the greatest housing need exist in our community?
• How can we set meaningful housing targets and measure progress to support the right kind of housing for all residents?
• How much housing, which size and at what price point do we need to ensure that all current and future households can live in suitable, adequate and affordable housing?  

HNAs will allow all levels of government (federal, provincial/territorial and municipal) to use this evidence base to inform their investments in enabling and supportive infrastructure as well as guide their policy and regulatory decision-making. HNAs as a tool can help communities plan for and build housing more effectively to address the needs of their residents and instill transparency and accountability across the board.

This HNA template has been informed by best practices from jurisdictions across Canada, consultations with experts, and engagements with provinces and territories. These include the City of Vancouver's Housing Needs Report and the City of Edmonton's Affordable Housing Needs Assessment (for the affordable housing side of needs assessments), as well as the Housing Research Collaborative at the University of British Columbia which brought together a national network of researchers and experts to develop the Housing Assessment Resource Tool (HART). The HART project provides formatted data from Statistics Canada on key housing indices such as core housing need for a wide variety of jurisdictions and geographic levels.

Based on these best practices, this guidance document includes the following necessary information, explained in more detail below.

1. Development and use of Housing Needs Assessments
2. Community profiles and trends
3. Household profiles and economic characteristics
4. Priority groups
5. Housing profiles
6. Projected housing needs and next steps

Communities completing an HNA as a requirement for federal infrastructure programming will be expected to complete all sections outlined in this template. Communities may use a previously completed HNA if an updated version is available; however, communities would be expected to address any gaps related to any of the sections of the guidance document – both qualitative and quantitative – between their existing HNA and this federal template. Additional details about the timelines for completion and submission of HNAs will be provided with specific infrastructure funding programs (e.g. Canada Community-Building Fund).

While responding to the written questions, please use as much space as required.

1. Methodology

In this section, applicants should outline the research methodology used to inform the completion of the assessment, where the methodology is derived from, any assumptions used, and any necessary justification. While different assessments may incorporate unique methodological elements or considerations depending on context, the following methods should generally be outlined:

• Quantitative research such as economic data, population and household forecasts; and,
• Qualitative research such as interviews, policy analysis and stakeholder engagement.

Both qualitative and quantitative aspects of this guidance document are equally important.

Communities will be required to engage with key stakeholders in the housing sector, including non-profit housing providers, developers, and public entities, as well as those with specific lived experiences, to develop a comprehensive HNA. This section should include what forms of engagement were conducted, with whom, how learnings were incorporated into or informed the Housing Needs Assessment (HNA)'s findings, and what engagement opportunities may exist to share findings with the community.

To the extent possible, publicly available data from the following sources will be prepopulated to facilitate automated completion of the quantitative components of the assessments:

• Statistics Canada Census Data
• CMHC Housing Market Information Portal
• Statistics Canada Housing Statistics Dashboard
• CMHC Demographic Projections: Housing Market Insights, June 2022
• CMHC Proximity Measures Database
• Housing Assessment Resource Tool Dashboard
• Canadian Housing Evidence Collaborative – Housing Intelligence Platform

In addition to this data, communities are required to incorporate internal and non-public facing, non-confidential data, into their HNAs in order to more fully capture local contexts and realities as needed.

1.1 Please provide an overview of the methodology and assumptions used to develop this Housing Needs Assessment, using the guidelines above. This should include both quantitative and qualitative methods. Please also identify the publicly available data sources used to complete this assessment beyond the sources listed above, if applicable.

1.2 Please provide an overview of the methodology and assumptions used to engage with stakeholder groups, e.g. non-profit housing organizations, in the development of this Housing Needs Assessment. This should include qualitative and quantitative methods. Please provide a description of who was engaged, the type of engagement that took place, and the nature of the engagement (e.g. interviews, consultations).

1.3 Please provide an overview of the methodology and assumptions used to conduct engagement with the priority groups (identified in Section 4) in the development of this Housing Needs Assessment. This should include qualitative and quantitative methods. Please provide a description of who was engaged, the type of engagement that took place, and the nature of the engagement (e.g. interviews, consultations). If a private individual has been engaged, please anonymize and remove any identifying features from the narrative.

2. Community Profile and Trends

In this section, communities are expected to tell their housing story through the lenses of their community and household profiles using both qualitative and quantitative data. Communities may structure this information in different ways, including by providing past benchmarks, present figures, future projections, and current growth rates at a local, regional and provincial level.

2.1 Please detail the existing municipal housing policy and regulatory context, such as approved housing strategies, action plans and policies within Official Community Plans:

2.2 Community Profile

2.2.1 Population

Characteristic	Data	Value
Total Population (Number)	2016
	2021
Population Growth (Number)	Total
	Percentage
Age (Years)	Average
	Median
Age Distribution	0-14 years
	15-64 years
	65+ years
Mobility	Non-movers
	Non-migrants
	Migrants

2.2.2 Demographic Information

Characteristic	Data	Value
Immigrants	Total
Non-Immigrants	Total
Recent Immigrants (2016-2021)	Total
Interprovincial migrants (2016-2021)	Total
Indigenous identity	Total

2.3 How have population changes in your community as illustrated by the above data impacted your housing market?

3. Household Profiles and Economic Characteristics

This section should provide a general overview of income, housing and economic characteristics of the community being studied. Understanding this data will make it easier to observe the incidence of housing need among different socio-economic groups within the community. Income categories could be used for this analysis and can be completed in accordance with the HART methodology and CMHC data.

Area Median Household Income (AMHI) can be used as the primary basis for determining income brackets (as a percentage of AMHI) and corresponding housing cost ceilings.

This section should also outline the percentage of households that currently fall into each of the income categories previously established. This will allow a better understanding of how municipalities compare to Canadian averages, and the proportion of households that fall into each household income category. This will also allow for a better understanding of drop-off levels between total households and the number of units required to meet anticipated need or demand in each category.

Housing tenures allow for the comparison of renter and owner-occupied household experiences and are important for understanding a community's housing context.

Using a stratified, income-based approach to assessing current housing needs can enable communities to target new housing development in a broader and more inclusive and equitable way, resulting in housing that can respond to specific households in core housing need. This is shown in the next section.

3.1 Household Profiles

3.1.1 Household Income and Profile

Characteristic	Data	Value
Total number of households	2016
	2021
Household income (Canadian dollars per year, only available at CMA or CA Level) – Data from [CMA or CA name]	Average
	Median
Tenant Household Income (Canadian dollars per year, Only Available at Census Agglomeration Level)	Average
	Median
Owner household income (Canadian dollars per year, only available at CMA or CA Level) – Data from [CMA or CA name]	Average
	Median
Average household size (Number of members)	Total
Breakdown of household by size (Number of households)	Total
	1 person
	2 persons
	3 persons
	4 persons
	5 or more persons
Tenant households (Number of households)	Total
	Percentage
Owner households (Number of households)	Total
	Percentage
Percentage of tenant households in subsidized housing	Percentage
Households within 800m of a local higher-order/high frequency transit stop or station (#)	Total
Number of one-parent families	Total
	Percentage
Number of one-parent families in which the parent is a woman+	Total
Number of one-parent families in which the parent is a man+	Total
Number of households by Income Category *based on HART methodology	Very Low (up to 20% below Area Median Household Income (AMHI)
	Low (21% – 50% AMHI)
	Moderate (51 – 80% AMHI)
	Median (81% - 120% AMHI)
	High (>120% AMHI)

3.2 Please provide context to the data above to situate it within your municipality. For example, is there a significant number of one-parent families? Are owner household incomes far surpassing tenant household incomes?

3.3 Suppression of household formation (e.g., younger people living with their parents due to affordability pressures) and housing demand (e.g., “driving until you qualify”) can both indicate strained local housing market conditions. Please provide any data or information that speaks to how suppression of the formation of new households and suppression of housing demand has impacted your community since 2016, and how projected formation patterns are expected to be impacted over the next 5 to 10 years. Please indicate methods used to determine expected household formation, such as calculating headship rates broken down by specific age estimate impacts. ^{Footnote 1}

3.4 Economic Conditions

3.4.1 Economy and Labour Force

Characteristic	Data	Value
Number of workers in the Labour Force	Total
Number of workers by industry (Top 10 only)	Industry 1
	Industry 2
	Industry 3
	Industry 4
	Industry 5
	Industry 6
	Industry 7
	Industry 8
	Industry 9
	Industry 10
Unemployment rate and participation rate (Percent)	Unemployment rate
	Participation rate
All classes of workers (Number)	Total
Employees (Number)	Total
Permanent position (Number)	Total
Temporary position (Number)	Total
Fixed term (1 year or more, Number)	Total
Casual, seasonal or short-term position (less than 1 year, Number)	Total
Self-employed (Number)	Total
Number of commuters by commuting destination	Within census subdivision
	To different census subdivision
	To different census division
	To another province/territory
Number of commuters by main mode of commuting for the employed labour force with a usual place of work or no fixed workplace address	Car, truck or van
	Public transit
	Walked
	Bicycle
	Other method

3.5 How have labour conditions (e.g., prevalence of precarious employment, temporary or seasonal workforces, reliance on sectors such as natural resources, agriculture, tourism, etc.) in your community impacted housing supply and demand?

3.6 Households in Core Housing Need

A household is considered to be in core housing need if it meets two criteria:

1. A household is below one or more of the national adequacy, suitability and affordability standards; and,
2. The household would have to spend 30% or more of its before-tax household income to access local housing that meets all three standards.

Housing is considered to be affordable when housing costs less than 30% of before-tax household income. Housing is considered to be suitable when there are enough bedrooms for the size and make-up of the household. Housing is considered to be adequate when it is not in need of major repairs. Determining the percentage of core housing need would facilitate comparison with forecasts of population growth and household formation, in turn enabling more accurate projection of anticipated housing needs broken down by different factors such as income, household size and priority population, as explained below. It is important to note that official measures of those in core housing need exclude key groups, including those experiencing homelessness, students living independently of their guardians, people living in congregate housing, and migrant farm workers. This means that core housing need figures may underestimate overall housing need. Due to this, communities should also strive to include as much information as possible about these groups in the Priority Groups section below, in order to provide a comprehensive picture of who is affected by core housing need.

Please use the following section to insert the following Housing Assessment Resource Tools Data Tables:

• Income Categories and Affordable Shelter Costs
• Percentage of Households in Core Housing Need, by Income Category and Household Size
• 2021 Affordable Housing Deficit

3.6.1 Households in Core Housing Need

Characteristic	Data	Value
Affordability – Owner and tenant households spending 30% or more on shelter costs (# and %)	Total
	Percentage
Affordability – Owner and tenant households spending 30% or more on shelter costs and in core need (# and %)	Total
	Percentage
Affordability – Tenant households spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs (# and %)	Total
	Percentage
Affordability – Tenant households spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs and in core need (# and %)	Total
	Percentage
Affordability – Owner households spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs (# and %)	Total
	Percentage
Affordability – Owner households spending 30% or more of income on shelter costs and in core need (# and %)	Total
	Percentage
Adequacy – Owner and tenant households in dwellings requiring major repair (# and %)	Total
	Percentage
Adequacy – Owner and tenant households in dwellings requiring major repair and in core need (# and %)	Total
	Percentage
Adequacy – Tenant households in dwellings requiring major repairs (# and %)	Total
	Percentage
Adequacy – Tenant households in dwellings requiring major repairs and in core need (# and %)	Total
	Percentage
Adequacy – Owner households in dwellings requiring major repairs (# and %)	Total
	Percentage
Adequacy – Owner households in dwellings requiring major repairs and in core need (# and %)	Total
	Percentage
Suitability – Owner and tenant households in unsuitable dwellings (# and %)	Total
	Percentage
Suitability – Owner and tenant households in unsuitable dwellings and in core need (# and %)	Total
	Percentage
Suitability – Tenant households in unsuitable dwellings (# and %)	Total
	Percentage
Suitability – Tenant households in unsuitable dwellings and in core need (# and %)	Total
	Percentage
Suitability – Owner households in unsuitable dwellings (# and %)	Total
	Percentage
Suitability – Owner households in unsuitable dwellings and in core need (# and %)	Total
	Percentage
Total households in core housing need	Total
Percentage of tenant households in core housing need	Percentage
Percentage of owner households in core housing need	Percentage

3.7 Please provide any other available data or information that may further expand on, illustrate or contextualize the data provided above.

4. Priority Groups

There are 12 groups that CMHC defines as priority populations for affordable homes: groups who face a proportionally far greater housing need than the general population. There is also a 13th group, women-led households and specifically single mothers, implied in the National Housing Strategy which targets 33% (with a minimum of 25%) of funding going to housing for women-led households. Priority population groups are:

• Women and children fleeing domestic violence
• Women-led households, especially single mothers
• Seniors 65+
• Young adults aged 18-29
• Indigenous Peoples
• Racialized people
• Recent immigrants, especially refugees
• LGBTQ2S+
• People with physical health or mobility challenges
• People with developmental disabilities
• People dealing with mental health and addictions issues
• Veterans
• People experiencing homelessness

Census data does not disaggregate core housing need data by all priority populations, including veterans, individuals who identify as LGBTQ2S+, survivors of domestic violence, and individuals experiencing homelessness. Many households may have members in multiple priority categories which may also not be represented in the data. With these limitations in mind, information on housing need by priority population would be helpful for developing inclusive housing policies.

4.1 What information is available that reflects the housing need or challenges of priority populations in your community? If data is available, please report on the incidence of core housing need by CMHC priority population groups in your community. If no quantitative data is available, please use qualitative information to describe the need for these priority populations.

4.2 Please describe the incidence and severity of homelessness in your community, including an estimated number of individuals and/or families experiencing homelessness (hidden, visible, chronic, living in encampments, and episodic). If available, please include recent Point-in-Time counts.

4.3 Please describe local factors that are believed to contribute to homelessness in your community (e.g., the closing of a mental health facility, high numbers of refugee claimants, etc.).

4.4 Please identify temporary and emergency relief resources available for individuals experiencing homelessness in your community (e.g., number of shelter beds, resource centres, number of transitional beds available). If possible, please indicate whether capacity levels are commensurate with need. There will be an opportunity to provide information on local permanent solutions and resources further down.

4.5 Some groups, including students, those in congregate housing, and temporary foreign workers, may be excluded from publicly available core housing need data sources. Communities are encouraged to use this section to describe the housing needs of these respective populations to ensure that all groups are represented in their HNA.

5. Housing Profile

5.1 Key Trends in Housing Stock:

This section should tell a story of housing changes over time in a community through trends in net change of affordable or below-market housing. This should be expressed through illustrations of net losses or net gains in affordable and non-market housing over the previous three census periods.

5.2 Please provide a brief history of how housing in the community has been shaped by forces such as employment growth and economic development, infrastructure, transportation, climate impacts, and migration. Please include any long-term housing challenges the community has faced.

5.2.1 Housing Units: Currently Occupied/Available

Characteristic	Data	Value
Total private dwellings	Total
Breakdown by structural types of units (number of units)
	Single-detached
	Semi-detached
	Row house
	Apartment/flat in a duplex
	Apartment in a building that has fewer than 5 storeys
	Apartment in a building that has 5 or more storeys
	Other single attached
	Movable dwelling
Breakdown by size (number of units)	Total
	No bedrooms
	1 bedroom
	2 bedrooms
	3 bedrooms
	4 or more bedrooms
Breakdown by date built (number of units)	Total
	1960 or before
	1961 to 1980
	1981 to 1990
	1991 to 2000
	2001 to 2005
	2006 to 2010
	2011 to 2015
	2016 to 2021
Rental vacancy rate (Percent)	Total
	Bachelor
	1 bedroom
	2 bedrooms
	3 bedrooms+
Number of primary and secondary rental units	Primary
	Secondary
Number of short-term rental units	Total

5.3 In the last five years, how many affordable units for low and very low-income households have been built, and how many have been lost? If data is not available, please describe how the loss of affordable housing units may have impacted your community.

5.4 How have average rents changed over time in your community? What factors (economic, social, national, local, etc.) have influenced these changes?

5.5 How have vacancy rates changed over time? What factors have influenced this change?

5.6 How have trends in core housing need changed over time between both tenant and owner-occupied households?

5.7 Non-Market Housing

5.7.1 Current Non-Market Housing Units

Characteristic	Data	Value
Number of housing units that are subsidized	Total
Number of housing units that are below market rent in the private market (can either be rent or income-based definition)	Total
Number of co-operative housing units	Total
Number of other non-market housing units (permanent supportive, transitional, etc.)	Total

5.8 Please describe any other affordable and community housing options and needs/gaps currently in your community that are not captured in the table above.

Examples can include:

• Are any of these affordable housing units accessible or specifically designed for seniors, including long-term care and assisted living?
• Does your municipality provide rent supplements or other assistance programs that deepen affordability for households?
• Is your community in need of supportive housing units with wrap-around supports, such as for those with disabilities?

5.9 Housing Trends

5.9.1 Housing Values

Characteristic	Data	Value
Median monthly shelter costs for rented dwellings (Canadian dollars)	Median
Purpose-built rental prices by unit size (Average, Canadian dollars)	Total
	Bachelor
	1 bedroom
	2 bedrooms
	3 bedrooms+
Purpose-built rental prices by unit size (Median, Canadian dollars per month)	Total
	Bachelor
	1 bedroom
	2 bedrooms
	3 bedrooms+
Sale prices (Canadian dollars)	Average
	Median
Sale prices by unit size  (Average, Canadian dollars)	Average
	Bachelor
	1 bedroom
	2 bedrooms
	3 bedrooms+
Sale prices by unit size  (Median, Canadian dollars)	Median
	Bachelor
	1 bedrooms
	2 bedrooms
	3 bedrooms+

5.9.2 Housing Units: Change in Housing Stock

Characteristic	Data	Value
Demolished – breakdown by tenure	Tenant
	Owner
Completed – Overall and breakdown by structural type (annual, number of structures)	Total
	Single
	Semi-detached
	Row
	Apartment
Completed – Breakdown by tenure (annual, number of structures)	Tenant
	Owner
	Condo
	Co-op
Housing starts by structural type and tenure	Total

6. Projected Housing Needs and Next Steps

This section aims to answer the question, how much and what type of housing is needed to meet the needs of the population over the next 10 years? How will this Housing Needs Assessment (HNA) be meaningfully used in planning and investment decisions?

This section projects population trends from the previous 10 years, dividing by income category and target housing costs while considering migration trends. An example of a benchmarked projection from Edmonton's Affordable Housing Needs Assessment is provided below.

Household Growth Projection 2016-2026

Year	Household growth projection
2016	360,845
2021	400,944
2026	437,281

Source: Edmonton Affordable Housing Needs Assessment – August 2022

HNAs should be able to convey through their data-driven narrative how many housing units are needed by income category, household size and dwelling type over the next 10 years. In completing this section, communities must carefully consider their past growth trends and future demographic projections, including recent immigration patterns, aging population dynamics, and economic trends. Furthermore, it is also crucial for communities to consider any pre-existing housing shortages, as evidenced by indicators such as recent trends in rental vacancy rates, growth in prices/rents, the number of households in core housing need, and the aging of their current housing stock. 

6.1 Projection Methodology Guidelines

There are several projection methodologies that can be used to project housing demand, including the HART housing needs projection here. The federal government recommends using the HART methodology as a reference point, with additional considerations and data points to improve the validity of the methodology. These considerations, including economic data integration and supply capacity and gaps as well as steps for calculating the methodology are noted below. Provinces and territories, in consultation with their municipalities/communities, are invited to use a methodology that fits their regional circumstances, ensuring the assumptions that inform their preferred methodology are also clearly explained. The federal government will review the HNAs as a requirement for its various funding programs and assess the methodology and assumptions that inform it for their validity and robustness. If needed, further engagements can take place to better align the preferred methodology with the federal government's expectations.

In employing a projection methodology, jurisdictions may find the following list of key considerations and steps useful. The following approach involves first projecting the population into the future, then projecting household formation from headship rates, and then demand for housing by tenure, dwelling type and size, family type and income groups. Following the Population Projection, Household Projection and Housing Demand Projection steps, a table is presented of the key considerations for each step in the process.

Step 1: Population Projection

• Conceptually the projected population is calculated as the survived population + births + projected net migrants. An example of an accepted method to calculate population projection is the Cohort-Component population projection method.

Step 2: Household Projection

• Project family and non-family households separately by multiplying the projected population by age group in a given year with projected headship rates (household formation) by age group in a given year.
• A headship rate represents the probability that a member of a given age group will head (maintain) a household of a given type (family or non-family). Historical headship rates are calculated as the ratio of household heads in an age group to the population of that age group.
• Total headship rates can be determined by adding family and non-family headship rates together for a given age group and year. An increase in the total headship of any particular age group means that overall a higher proportion of that group heads households than previously. The converse holds true for a decrease in the total headship rate. Thus, the total rate is an overall indication of the propensity to form households in a particular age group.
• Project both family and non-family households by household type (composition), including couples without children, couples with children, lone parents, multiple-family households, one-person households, and other non-family households. This can be achieved by multiplying the projected number of households in a particular age group by the projected household type proportions for that age group.
• Historical proportions for family households are the ratio of the number of family households of a given type in an age group to the total number of family households headed by that age group.
• Historical proportions for non-family households are the ratio of the number of non-family households of a given type in an age group to the total number of non-family households headed by that age group.
• Project net household formation according to family and non-family household types by calculating the difference between projected households in successive years.

Step 3: Housing Demand (Need) Projection

• Project the number of owner households within a particular age range and household type by multiplying projected household by type (family and non-family) by projected ownership rates.
• Project the number renter households by calculating the difference between projected households and the number of projected owner households.
• Historical ownership or renter rates are the ratio of the number of owning/ or renter households of a given type and age of head to the total number of households (owners and renters combined) of that type and age of head.
• Project dwelling type (single, semi, row, apartment) by multiplying projected age-specific renter and owner dwelling choice propensities by household type (family and non-family) with the projected number of renter and owner households of the given household type and age group.
• Historical dwelling choice (occupancy) propensities describe the proportion of a given household type, tenure, and age of head group occupying each of the four dwelling types.
• Finally, communities should integrate assessments of pre-existing housing shortages into their final calculations. This integration should be informed by a thorough review of the preceding quantitative and qualitative analyses within the HNA. Additionally, communities should utilize the data and more advanced methodologies detailed in the Annex to ensure a comprehensive estimation of these shortages.

HART Household Projections – Projected Households by Household Size and Income Category

• The HART methodology estimates the total number of units by type (number of bedrooms) and with reference to income categories that will be needed to house a community's projected population.

Please use the Housing Assessment Resource Tools Households Projections tab to fill out the table below for your jurisdiction.

6.1.1 Projected Households by Household Size and Income Category

HH Income Category	1 person	2 person	3 person	4 person	5+ person	Total
Very Low Income
Low Income
Moderate Income
Median Income
High Income
Total

Key Considerations

Population

• It is strongly advised to use the updated post-census population estimates for 2022 as your base population provided by Statistics Canada's demographic estimates division. These estimates account for any discrepancies in population counts, whether they are undercounts or overcounts. These estimates also smooth out the sharp downturn in immigration due to the pandemic in 2020/21. Please refer to annex for links to Statistics Canada CSD and CMA estimates.
• If historical fertility, survival and mortality rates by age category are stable and not trending, apply average historical rates to current population by age to project forward. If rates do trend by age over time, estimate the average change in rates in percentage points and add to current rates when projecting forward for the baseline scenario.
• For larger communities and centres where the data exists, disaggregate and project baseline net migration flows for respective components (i.e., net interprovincial, net intra migration and net international). Disaggregate net international migration and project its components further (emigration, returning Canadians, non permanent residents, etc.) and use recent growth trends per flow to project total net international migration. In projecting international migration, it will be important for communities to use the more updated federal immigration targets as an anchor.
• Because of the economic uncertainty triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and potential future shocks, larger communities are expected to create one additional population scenario (high) to supplement the baseline. Utilize StatsCan projection methodology for fertility, survival, and migration to establish the high scenario. Consult Statistics Canada's population projection report cited in the appendix. Communities should avoid using low population or migration scenarios to prevent housing need undercounting.

Smaller Communities

• In smaller centers where population projection scenarios are unavailable from StatsCan, but there is the capacity to generate them, cities can resort to using historically high population growth rates or migration scenarios as alternative methods for projecting future population.
• One industry communities should also develop multiple population scenarios to manage economic volatility

Household Projections

• Headship rate is commonly defined as the ratio of the number of households by age to the population of adults by age in each community and can be used to project future households.
• If historical headship rates data is not trending or stable by age, apply the average historical census family/non-family headship rates by age group to the corresponding population within each age group.
• If historical headship rates by age is showing a trend over time, include the average historical census family/non-family headship rates percentage point change to the current headship rate. Subsequently, apply these adjusted headship rates by age to the corresponding population within each age group. By incorporating average historical headship rates into household projections, communities can mitigate the impact of potential decreases in recent headship rates that may be due to housing unaffordability, therefore avoiding artificially low household projections.

Optional for Smaller Communities

• For the younger population aged 18-34, predict family/non-family headship rates using economic modeling. See UK study in annex for further guidance.
• Project household composition by family/non-family households using latest census proportions by family type.
• Project household size by age for family/nonfamily type by dividing population by households.

Housing Demand

To project housing demand by tenure:

• If ownership rates for family/non-family households within specific age groups are not showing a trend over time, apply the average historical ownership rates to projected households by age. The remaining households are considered renter households by age.
• If ownership rates for family/non-family households within specific age groups are trending over time, include the average historical percentage point change to the current ownership rates. Apply these adjusted ownership rates to household counts by age to project tenure by age. The remaining households are considered renter households by age.

To project housing demand by dwelling type:

• If historical dwelling propensities by family type, age, and tenure are not exhibiting a trend, apply the average historical demand propensity by type, age, and tenure to project households by type, age, and tenure.
• If historical demand type propensities are trending, incorporate the average percentage point change in demand type propensities to the current propensities. Apply these adjusted propensities to household types to estimate future dwelling propensities.

Economic Data Integration

• Relying solely on traditional demographic approaches to forecast housing needs can underestimate housing demand.
• Headship rates by age and family type can be projected by considering economic factors as explanatory drivers. These factors could include income, unemployment rates, prices, rents, and vacancy rates.
• CMHC is developing models to project headship rates for household maintainers aged 18-34 in provinces and larger metropolitan areas. Larger communities can benefit from leveraging these projections.
• Using an economic approach to project headship rates and incomes facilitates the estimation of household counts by age, size, tenure, and income. When integrated with dwelling type, price, and rent data, this approach assists in identifying potential households in core housing need.

Supply Capacity & Supply Gaps

• Housing need projections should be adjusted upwards or downwards to account for the net effects of conversions, demolitions, and vacant units in each community.
• Where data is available, communities should assess future capacity by compiling data on draft approved serviced lots, categorized by dwelling type and tenure, that will be available for residential development. When combined with household projections by dwelling type and tenure, help estimate supply gaps
• In addition, larger communities can leverage supply gap estimates from CMHC to help inform where need is greatest and to identify housing shortages.

Optional for Smaller Communities

• Comparing housing need projections with supply capacity will enable communities to identify potential gaps in supply by dwelling type and tenure.

6.2 Projection Methodology

Please outline the methodology and calculations used to complete the projections here, including any assumptions made.

6.2.1 Projections

Characteristic	Data/Formula	Value
Women by age distribution (# and %)	0-14
	15-19
	20-24
	25-64
	65-84
	85+
Male Births	Births x Estimated Proportion of Male Births
Female Births	Total births – Male Births
Survival Rate	Survival rate for those not yet born at the beginning of the census year
Net Migrations	Net migration (in and out) of those not yet born at the beginning of the census year
Projected Family Households	Age-group population x projected age-specific family headship rate
Projected Non-family Households	Age-group population x projected age-specific non-family headship rate
Total Projected Headship Rate	Family headship rates + non-family headship rates
Projected Net Household Formation	Projected households by type (family and non-family) (Year 2) – Projected households by type (family and non-family) (Year 1)
Projected Owner Households	Projected households by type, year and age group x Projected ownership rate by type, year and age group
Projected Renter Households	Projected households by type, year and age group – projected owner households by type, year and age group
Projected Dwelling Choice	Projected households by type, tenure and age group x projected dwelling choice propensities by type, tenure and age group

6.3 Population and Households Projections

6.3.1 Anticipated Population by [Year]

Characteristic	Data	Value
Anticipated population	Total
Anticipated population growth	Total
	Percentage
Anticipated age	Average
	Median
Anticipated age distribution (# and %)	0-14
	15-19
	20-24
	25-64
	65-84
	85+

6.3.2 Anticipated Households by [Year]

Characteristic	Data	Value
Current number of households	Total
Anticipated number of households	Total
Anticipated Household Age	Average
	Median
Anticipated Households by Tenure	Renter
	Owner
Anticipated Units by Type	Total
	Single
	Semi-detached
	Row
	Apartment
Anticipated Units by Number of Bedrooms	1 bedroom
	2 bedroom
	3 bedroom
	4 bedroom
	5 bedroom
Anticipated Households by Income	Average
	Median
	Very Low
	Low
	Moderate
	High
Anticipated average household size	Total
Draft approved lots by planned housing type	Total
Draft approved lots by tenure	Tenant
	Owner

7. Use of Housing Needs Assessments in Long-Term Planning

7.1 This final section aims to determine how your community anticipates using the results and findings captured in the Housing Needs Assessment to inform long-term planning as well as concrete actions that can address identified needs. Please use the following questions to describe how those linkages will be made.

• How will this HNA inform your official communityor development plan, housing policies and/or actions going forward? For example, if the HNA identifies specific needs in your community across the housing spectrum – such as housing needed for priority populations, units for large households in denser form factors, more diverse structural types such as missing middle housing, or more affordable and higher-density housing near transit - how could actions and changes in policy and planning help address those needs?
• How will data collected through the HNA help direct those plans and policies as they aim to improve housing locally and regionally, and how will this intersect with major development patterns, growth management strategies, as well as master plans and capital plans that guide infrastructure investments?
• Based on the findings of this HNA, and particularly the projected housing needs, please describe any anticipated growth pressures caused by infrastructure gaps that will need to be prioritized and addressed in order to effectively plan and prepare for forecasted growth. This can relate to any type of enabling infrastructure needed for housing, including fixed and non-fixed assets, as well as social, community or natural infrastructure that your local government has identified as a priority for fostering more complete and resilient communities.

Examples may include:

• Will your public transit system have the capacity to meet increasing demand?
• Will your water and wastewater system have the capacity for additional connections based on the amount of new housing units that will need to be built?
• Will new roads or bridges need to be built to serve new or growing communities?
• Will new schools, parks, community or recreational centres need to be built to serve new or growing communities?
• Will broadband service and access need to be significantly expanded to help new residents and businesses connect? Are there any climate risks or impacts that will affect new growth?

Annex A: Relevant Links for Developing Housing Needs Projections

Data and Analysis

• Housing Statistics - Statistics Canada
• Population estimates, July 1, by census subdivision, 2016 boundaries
• Population estimates, July 1, by census metropolitan
• Population and demography statistics
• Population Projections for Canada (2021 to 2068), Provinces and Territories (2021 to 2043)
• Housing Market Information Portal
• UrbanSim – Scenario Modeling

Reports & Publications

• Housing Markets Insight - CMHC's household projections for 8 of Canada's major urban centres until 2042
• CMHC - Housing Shortages in Canada Report
• University of British Columbia - Housing Assessment Resource Tools (HART)
• University of London - Affordability targets: Implications for Housing Supply
• Nova Scotia Housing Needs Assessment Report Methodology
• Ontario Land Needs Assessment Methodology
• British Columbia Affordable Housing Need Assessment Methodology

Annex B: Glossary

Affordable Housing: a dwelling unit where the cost of shelter, including rent and utilities, is a maximum of 30% of before-tax household income.

Area Median Household Income: The median income of all households in a given area.

Cooperative Housing: A type of residential housing option whereby the owners do not own their units outright. This would include non-profit housing cooperatives, as stand-alone co-operatives or in partnership with another non-profit, including student housing co-ops, as well as Indigenous co-ops, including those in partnership with Indigenous governments and organizations. This does not, however, include homeownership co-ops or equity co-ops that require an investment, which along with any profit earned, is returned to co-op investors.

Core Housing Need: refers to whether a private household's housing falls below at least one of the indicator thresholds for housing adequacy, affordability or suitability, and would have to spend 30% or more of its total before-tax income to pay the median rent of alternative local housing that is acceptable (attains all three housing indicator thresholds).

• Adequate – Does not require any major repairs, according to residents. Major repairs include those to defective plumbing or electrical wiring, or structural repairs to walls, floors or ceilings.
• Suitable – Has enough bedrooms for the size and make-up of resident households, according to guidelines outlined in National Occupancy Standard (NOS).
• Affordable – All shelter costs total less than 30% of a household's before-tax income.

Household: a person or a group of persons (other than foreign residents) who occupy a private dwelling and do not have a usual place of residence elsewhere in Canada.

Household Formation: the net change in the number of households.

Permanent Supportive Housing: prioritizes people experiencing chronic homelessness and other vulnerable people who have the highest support needs. It provides long-term affordable housing and a diversity of customized support services.

Purpose-Built Rental: Also known as the primary rental market or secure rentals; multi-unit buildings (three or more units) which are built specifically for the purpose of providing long-term rental accommodations.

Short-Term Rentals: All or part of a dwelling unit rented out for less than 28 consecutive days in exchange for payment. This includes bed and breakfasts (B&Bs) but excludes hotels and motels. It also excludes other accommodations where there is no payment.

Suppressed Household Formation: New households that would have been formed but are not due to a lack of attainable options. The persons who would have formed these households include, but are not limited to, many adults living with family members or roommates and individuals wishing to leave unsafe or unstable environments but cannot due to a lack of places to go.

Missing Middle Housing: Housing that fits the gap between low-rise, primarily single-family homes and mid-rise apartment buildings, typically including secondary and garden suites, duplexes, triplexes, fourplexes, rowhouses and townhouses, courtyard housing, and low-rise apartment buildings of 4 storeys or less. These housing types provide a variety of housing options that add housing stock and meet the growing demand for walkability. The missing middle also refers to the lack of available and affordable housing for middle-income households to rent or own.